84th Oscars Recap

The Artist and Hugo tied for the most wins but most people will give the edge to The Artist because it won Best Picture. The biggest losers were War Horse and Moneyball which had six nominations each but brought home zero wins. The Moneyball losses bother me the most. It was one of my absolute favorites for the year.

There were a few surprises for the night, which is always nice. Meryl Streep's win was startling, if for no other reason than we've come to expect that she'll be nominated almost every year and then lose. I saw a fair number of people coming down on her for false modesty in her speech. Have we become so cynical that's impossible to believe that someone can be genuinely moved to win? Just because she's famous and nominated repeatedly doesn't mean she can't appreciate the moment. There are a lot of huge egos in Hollywood but most of the time you'll find that the most talented and hardest working people are the most modest. Don't shit on her moment. She's earned it.

The other big surprises were in technical categories, so the average person probably didn't even notice. The editing win for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo left me gobsmacked. I had just bored my wife to tears with my dissertation on why Moneyball deserved it but wouldn't win, and why Thelma Schoonmaker was a legend but wouldn't win and why The Artist would win, and then the one I neither mentioned or even seriously considered got the win. She laughed long and hard as I sat there with my jaw hanging open. And then there was the win by Hugo for visual effects, which I picked but still have trouble believing won. Make no mistake, the VFX work in Hugo is magnificent, but it is mostly the sort that is so seamless, you might not have realized you were looking at effects. Compared to the flashy effects of the competition, Hugo might have seemed a serious underdog. But the Academy often gives the award to the movie that best integrates its effects into the story. Considering that, it's not such a huge shock.

As for the show itself, it was fine. The Cirque de Soleil thing was cool and weird, so that was appreciated. Billy Crystal was just fine, but thoroughly safe. Chris Rock's brief moment on stage had me hoping he'd come back to host, Sean Penn be damned. Will Ferrell and Zach Galifinakis had a nice little bit with the cymbals. Angelina Jolie made me giggle when she struck a pose and then the writers of The Descendants made me laugh more when they struck a pose. Emma Stone looked stoned but was funnier than just about anyone. The focus group film with Christopher Guest and his band of comedians was great. The show was a big improvement over last year's debacle but very safe. I'd really love to see them take more risks and try to be more about film and less of a stage show.

I picked the winner correctly 17 out of 24 categories. Not bad, but far from my best effort. Below are all the categories with my predictions and the winners.

 

Best Picture

Who Will/Did Win: The Artist

Lead Actor

Who Will/Did Win: Jean Dujardin

Lead Actress

Who Will Win: Viola Davis - The Help Who Did Win: Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Supporting Actor

Who Will/Did Win: Christopher Plummer -Beginners

Supporting Actress

Who Will/Did Win: Octavia Spencer - The Help

Animated Feature Film

Who Will/Did Win: Rango

Art Direction

Who Will/Did Win: Hugo

Cinematography

Who Will/Did Win: Hugo

Costume Design

Who Will Win: Hugo Who Did Win: The Artist

Director

Who Will/Did Win: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

Documentary Feature

Who Will Win: Pina Who Did Win: Undefeated

Documentary Short

Who Will/Did Win: Saving Face

Editing

Who Will Win: The Artist Who Did Win: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Foreign Language Film

Who Will/Did Win: A Separation

Makeup

Who Will Win: Harry Potter 8 Who Did Win: The Iron Lady

Original Score

Who Will/Did Win: The Artist

Original Song

Who Will/Did Win: Man or Muppet from The Muppets

Short Film - Animated

Who Will/Did Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Short Film - Live Action

Who Will Win: Raju Who Did Win: The Shore

Sound Editing

Who Will/Did Win: Hugo

Sound Mixing

Who Will/Did Win: Hugo

Visual Effects

Who Will/Did Win: Hugo

Adapted Screenplay

Who Will/Did Win: The Descendants

Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: The Artist Who Did Win: Midnight in Paris

84th Annual Oscars Predictions

I'm a big fan of the Oscars. I know it's cool to dump on the Academy Awards and complain about everything they do wrong. But for me, that's a lot of their charm. As movie fans, there is little we like more than debating and arguing about movies. And so the Academy's imperfect record makes for good debate. As for the ceremony itself, the goofier and more weird, the better. Again, the quirks and flaws add to their charm. We have an extra debate every year about how to fix the Oscars. To my eye, the better run the show, the less interesting it is to watch.

So lets get right to the picks.

 

Best Picture

Who Will Win: The Artist

Who Should Win: Hugo

There are nine nominees but realistically this is a three horse race between The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo. I saw The Artist back in October at a film festival and enjoyed it but wondered how well a modern silent black & white movie would play to general audiences. I still don't think we have an answer to that but it clearly plays well to purple who hand out awards. I don't expect the Oscars to be any different.

Lead Actor

Who Will/Should Win: Jean Dujardin

This one seems to come down Jean Dujardin and George Clooney. Clooney is probably about as well liked guy as there is in Hollywood, which makes it feel like folks are just looking for an excuse to give him an award. But that won't be enough to hold off Dujardin. His showy performance is the linchpin for a silent film that likely goes down in flames without him. Dujardin doesn't merely succeed, he shines in the role.

Lead Actress

Who Will/Should Win: Viola Davis - The Help

This is a tough deep category this year. When Tilda Swinton's amazing performance in We Need to Talk About Kevin can be left out, the rest of the field is formidable. I can easily see Michelle Williams, Meryl Streep or Viola Davis walking away with it. Normally I'd favor the young pretty starlet, in this case Williams playing Marilyn Monroe in My Week With Marilyn, because that's the tendency of the Academy voters, but the winds don't seem to be blowing that way this year. Streep has a lot of heat this year, playing British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, but the 17 time nominee has to overcome a lack of love for the movie The Iron Lady. Davis, on the other hand is in the crowd pleasing film The Help, and serves as its emotional core.

Supporting Actor

Who  Will/Should Win: Christopher Plummer -Beginners

There are plenty of excellent performances in this category but the heavy favorite is Christopher Plummer for Beginners. His biggest competitor was the guy who wasn't even nominated, Albert Brooks in Drive.

Supporting Actress

Who Will/Should Win: Octavia Spencer - The Help

This is another category with a strong favorite. Octavia Spencer was a force of nature in The Help and won't be easily overlooked.

Animated Feature Film

Who Will/Should Win: Rango

The biggest surprise here is the lack of an entry from Pixar. Cars 2 wasn't a hit with critics but Pixar laughs all the way to the bank on that one. It will pay for the next few movies all by itself in merchandising. As for the actual nominees, this is a strange mix. Puss In Boots and Kung Fu Panda 2 are both fine films but not the sort that are remembered for the ages. A Cat In Paris and Chico & Rita are almost entirely unknown to American audiences at this point. We just don't know anything about them. That pretty much leaves Rango. Which is just fine with me since I declared it the favorite for the award when it first came out. It's a fun weird movie with something to say.

Art Direction

Who Will/Should Win: Hugo

I was tempted to pick The Artist for the simple reason that it seems to have a hell of a head of steam going. But I went with Hugo for the rather astounding attention to detail of the movie, not just in this area, but pretty much every element. If you learn anything about the making of this movie, it's just about impossible not to be in awe of the work done in it. I'm going with my heart a bit here, which is usually where I get pasted in picking, but it feels right.

Cinematography

Who Will/Should Win: Hugo

This category is a brute to predict. There is some exemplary work in all of these films. I could make a strong case for the photography of any of them. But I'm going to go with Hugo. For one thing it looks gorgeous. For another the camera moves in fascinating ways that will make you scratch your head in confusion if you stop to think about how they must have been shot. And finally, it uses stereo imaging and makes it work well. I am not a fan of the 3D craze and this is probably the first movie I've seen in 3D where I felt like it was adding something to the film and not just being a gimmick.

Costume Design

And let's make it three in a row for Hugo because it just rocks all these elements.

Director

Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese - Hugo

Who Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

Hugo is a movie that grows on me the more I think about it and the more I learn about how it was made. It just seems like this bottomless well of fascinating choices and information. I really love what Scorsese did by pulling together all these craftspeople to build the delightful world of Hugo. Scorsese's deep love of film history and his campaigning for film preservation come together here in a way that just tickles me to no end. So he is my unequivocable choice for this award. He won't get it. Michel Hazanavicius made something that seems to have tickled Hollywood just a little bit more. It's a fine film and he has my respect for it. I hope he enjoys the win. He just wouldn't be my choice.

Documentary Feature

Who Will Win: Pina

I haven't seen any of these so I have no direct opinion of them. I'll be rooting for Danfung Dennis and Hell And Back Again because he shot it on a Canon 5D and that's pretty cool. But I'm guessing Pina will win for the very simple reason that it's the only one I've heard people talking about. That must mean something.

Documentary Short

I'm sorry to say I haven't seen any of these either. Generally, this category goes to the most "important" topic so I'm going to guess the winner will be Saving Face because scarring women with acid is just wrong.

Editing

Who Should Win: Moneyball

Who Will Win: The Artist

If you ask me which movie has the best editing I'll answer Moneyball without hesitation. It was a tough task to pull that movie together and it was pulled off with style and grace. But it won't win. More likely it goes to The Artist or Hugo. I'm giving the edge to The Artist simply because I'm calling it for Best Picture as well. But don't be surprised if legendary editor Thelma Schoonmaker takes the prize.

Foreign Language Film

I'm picking A Separation because I hear people talking about it a lot and speaking very highly of it. But I haven't seen it or any of the competitors so it's purely a guess.

Makeup

Old age makeup is tough to get right and by all accounts The Iron Lady accomplishes the job effectively. But I suspect the award goes to Harry Potter 8 for being flashier and because it needs to win something.

Original Score

John Williams is nominated twice here, for Warhorse and The Adventures of Tintin, so he'll probably cancel himself out. Not that it matters because the easy choice here is The Artist. It's a silent film. There's no dialog to drive the story, leaving the score to do all that work. And since it works well, that inescapable score stands out much more than any other film.

Original Song

Man or Muppet from The Muppets. Duh.

Short Film - Animated

I've seen only one of these, The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore. And based on that diverse knowledge, I'll pick it to win.

Short Film - Live Action

Who Should Win: Time Freak

Who Will Win: Raju

For the first time ever, I've seen all of these before the ceremony. And instead of randomly picking one, I actually have to think about this. My favorite is Time Freak, mostly because it made me laugh the most. Pentecost is funny too but slight. Actually, all but one of these are comedies. Raju is serious and has a social conscience, making it a serious contender. The Shore is sweetly funny and has lovely acting, but it feels lacking in weight to me. Tuba Atlantic is a nice mix of laughs and sadness which could make it the best crowd pleaser. I'm going to go with Raju though. It has an emotional weight the other four can't match and wrestles with some tough moral quandaries.

Sound Editing

Who Should Win: Drive

Who Will Win: Hugo

At this point in my predictions, it's starting to feel like Hugo will run wild through the technical awards. I'm pulling for Drive just so it can win something though.

Sound Mixing

Who Should Win: Moneyball

Who Will Win: Hugo

I really loved the work in Moneyball but as I said, Hugo is on a rampage.

Visual Effects

Who Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Who Will Win: Hugo

I'm going out on a limb on this one thanks to this guy. My gut is loudly screaming that he's wrong and Rise will get its richly deserved win. But man do I want to be on the right side of an upset win, so here's the stab at that.

Adapted Screenplay

Who Should Win: Moneyball

Who Will Win: The Descendants

In case you haven't noticed by now, I loved the hell out of Moneyball. Considering that it took a book about sabremetrics, an area of baseball even a dedicated fan like myself can't get interested in, and made it into a great movie, that's some genius work right there. But every time I pick what I think is the best script, I get it wrong. So let's go with The Descendants. It's a fine film and I'm a big fan of Alexander Payne. I suspect a lot of Academy voters feel the same way.

Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: The Artist

Who Should Win: Midnight in Paris

The Artist is great work, particularly when hampered by the lack of dialogue, and it deserves a lot of praise. It will win. But I would personally go with Woody Allen's  Midnight in Paris which is utterly charming and smart as hell. And I'm not even much of an Allen fan, so that's high praise. The dark horse is Bridesmaids which represented a bit of a tidal shift in Hollywood regarding how it thinks women should be treated as material and served as an audience. But Hollywood only tends to get that sort of thing a few years down the road, so it's probably way too soon for an award this year.