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And the Nominations go to...
Hollyfeld, here, coming at you with a special edition of Look Closer... in which the Batman himself, John Shea, and I give you our picks for this year’s Academy Awards nominations, which are going to be announced early this week. We were going to do some guest reviews for this edition of the column, but I don’t have any at my disposal thus far. We’ll get to them soon, I promise you.
Before we get started, I would just like to offer a quick bit of commentary, saying that this is going to be a pain in the ass year to predict. Although there were hardly as many good films in 2000 as there were in 1999, the top 10 or so contenders this year are neck and neck with each other, which is going to lead to some tight competition and some split votes for notable actors and films. The presence of two equally popular historical epics in the Oscar race might prove to be hazardous for both films, with some smaller films, like Traffic and Almost Famous, looking to benefit from votes split between Gladiator and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
So at this point it’s really anyone’s game, although I think everyone agrees that those two epics are going to be leading the pack in nominations. Here are John’s and my picks for the top categories this year... it’s certainly going to be an interesting race. Now place your bets!
John’s Picks For:
BEST PICTURE: Erin Brockovich, Traffic, Gladiator, Almost Famous and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Erin Brockovich and Traffic are pretty much locks thanks to high respect for Soderbergh right now. Gladiator is on a wave of popular support (and heavy marketing) which will elevate to a surprising nomination. Almost Famous wasn't a huge hit but it's a critics darling so it should be in. Finally Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon is both successful and highly praised. It's a lock for a best foreign picture nod as well. Billy Elliot, Wonder Boys and O Brother, Where Art Thou? are all long shots due to weaker box office success.
Hollyfeld’s Picks For:
BEST PICTURE: Almost Famous, Cast Away, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Gladiator, Traffic.
As usual with the Academy Awards, two nominations in each category are pretty much a lock. This year, Gladiator and Traffic hold those spots. CT,HD would be considered a lock if it were in English, but unfortunately there has been some backlash in the Academy from certain individuals (they know who they are) discouraging voters to nominate it for various nationalistic reasons. Tragic, but true. Almost Famous should be a safe bet, as it is a popular and emotional film, even though it has no chance of winning. Cast Away fills my last slot because it is a crowd-pleaser from a group of Academy favorites, but its position in the top five could also be usurped by Billy Elliot, Chocolat, Erin Brockovich or Wonder Boys.
John’s Picks For:
BEST DIRECTOR: Cameron Crowe, Ang Lee, Steven Soderbergh, Steven Soderbergh, Ridley Scott.
I believe that Best Picture and Best Director should go hand in hand so this group is predetermined by my Best Picture picks.
Hollyfeld’s Picks For:
BEST DIRECTOR: Cameron Crowe, Ang Lee, Ridley Scott, Stephen Soderbergh, Stephen Soderbergh.
Expect the expected – most of the nominees in this category will match up with the Best Picture nominees, but not all. Soderbergh gets the extra slot, although I think this is primarily because of the novelty this presents this year, and not because someone else doesn’t deserve it more. Should he fail, however, Darren Aronofsky (Requiem For A Dream) is ready to step in, in his stead. Incidentally, Ang Lee is a lock for this category even if Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon doesn’t get nominated.
John’s Picks For:
BEST ACTOR: Tom Hanks, George Clooney, Sean Connery, Russell Crowe, Geoffrey Rush
Hanks is a given. The Academy loves him and he carried Cast Away on his back. Almost the same can be said for Russell Crowe so he's in. Rush was brilliant so leaving him out would be a crime. Clooney is so much better here than he has ever been before that I can't see not nominating him. Connery is my sentimental choice for breaking a nasty slump with a great performance.
Hollyfeld’s Picks For:
BEST ACTOR: Jamie Bell, Russell Crowe, Michael Douglas, Tom Hanks, Geoffrey Rush
I’m the first to admit that I’m playing this category somewhat conservatively. Crowe and Hanks are sure things, as is Rush, who is looking to be the perpetual bridesmaid this awards season for his performance in Quills. (Frankly, I think the fact that he hasn’t gone the way of F. Murray Abraham is almost enough of a reward on its own.) As for the last two positions, I can only say that Bell’s performance in Billy Elliot is a crowd-pleaser (although I think a bunch of people will really be pissed if he actually wins), and Michael Douglas has just had a good year. The only real question will be if he gets a nomination for Wonder Boys or Traffic (I’m betting on the former), or if those two performances will count against him and he’ll end up with zero. Should either of those last slots fail, look for Javier Bardem (Before Night Falls) or Benicio Del Toro (Traffic) to fill the void. (Chow Yun-Fat, Sean Connery and George Clooney, unfortunately, seem like long shots. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for all of them, though.)
John’s Picks For:
BEST ACTRESS: Julia Roberts, Joan Allen, Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Renee Zellwegger
The rest of the nominations are a courtesy. This is Julia Roberts' award. Joan Allen turns in yet another rock solid performance so she deserves a nomination. Michelle Yeoh is probably a long shot because this is a foreign film but she is deserving none the less. Cate Blanchett is also a long shot due to The Gift's meager box office but that doesn't change the fact that her performance is one of the year's best. Renee Zellwegger should be a bit more comfortable with a role that mixes equal parts comedy and drama.
Hollyfeld’s Picks For:
BEST ACTRESS: Ellen Burstyn, Bjork, Laura Linney, Julia Roberts, Michelle Yeoh
Burstyn and Roberts are the shoe-ins here, while Bjork and Linney are also top bets. Michelle Yeoh holds the wild card spot for me, and if she’s nominated look for her to make Julia Roberts sweat profusely come Oscar night. If, however, the Academy behaves very cruelly and Yeoh is left out, this position will most likely go to either Joan Allen, Juliette Binoche, Renee Zellweger, or, as a long shot, Michelle Rodriguez (Girlfight).
John’s Picks For:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Bruce Greenwood, Willem Dafoe, Benicio Del Toro, Albert Finney, Jack Black.
Willem Dafoe and Benicio Del Toro are locks. Their performances really defined Shadow of the Vampire and Traffic respectively. The way is less clear after them but I think Bruce Greenwood will get a nomination for his dead on recreation of President Kennedy in Thirteen Days. Albert Finney should get in for Erin Brockovich. The movie simply doesn't work as well without his great work. Finally, in my wild card, dark horse, major long shot pick, Jack Black should get a nod for his work in High Fidelity. He steals every scene he is in. Think Joan Cusack in In & Out and you'll understand this pick. Gary Oldman probably deserves a nomination for his work in The Contender but I suspect its weak box office and controversy over the final cut will keep him just outside.
Hollyfeld’s Picks For:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, Willem Dafoe, Benicio Del Toro, Albert Finney, Joaquin Phoenix
Dafoe and Finney lead the pack with guaranteed nominations (although neither of them a guaranteed win). Behind them lie Phoenix and Bridges, both with some fabulous and deserving performances. Del Toro looks like he might be hampered, unfortunately, by some indecision about whether his performance in Traffic was a lead role or not. If this confusion splits the vote, Bruce Greenwood (Thirteen Days) and Gary Oldman (The Contender) are both ready to step in.
John’s Picks For:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Catherine Zeta-Jones, Zhang Ziyi, Frances McDormand, Kate Hudson, Judi Dench.
In another year, Catherine Zeta-Jones wouldn't have a shot but there isn't a lot of strength in this field this year so her work in Traffic is good enough to get in. Zhang Ziyi should be a lock for CT,HD. Similarly both Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand will face no difficulty in getting in for Almost Famous. Judi Dench is becoming a perennial favorite for the Oscars. She received nominations in 98 and 99 and this year will be no different for her efforts in Chocolat.
Hollyfeld’s Picks For:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Kate Hudson, Frances McDormand, Julie Walters, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Zhang Ziyi
Best Supporting Actress is an unfortunately sparse category this year, with arguably few performances worthy of being nominated. Both Hudson and Walters seem to be safe bets, with Zhang Ziyi coming in close behind. (Notice: if Ziyi doesn’t get a nomination here, the Academy Awards are officially rigged.) The weaker links come in the form of McDormand (who might split her own vote with her supporting performances in Wonder Boys and Almost Famous, the latter of which seems most likely of a nom), and Zeta-Jones, whose performance in Traffic is a little less critically acclaimed. Kate Winslet’s performance in Quills or Dame Judie Dench’s in Chocolat could fill those slots, however, should Jones or McDormand fail to pull through.
Hollyfeld’s Picks For:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot, Chicken Run, Erin Brockovich, You Can Count On Me.
The pickings for this category are somewhat slimmer than last year, with few original scripts standing out with their originality. While this is not an especially bad thing, it does mean that there are mostly traditionally styled screenplays in the running. Almost Famous and You Can Count On Me stand out as the leaders in this category, with Billy Elliot and Erin Brockovich close behind. I give my wild card spot (which is usually VERY wild in the screenplay categories – anybody else remember when Bulworth was nominated?) to Chicken Run, which I believe could have had a shot at a Best Picture nomination with a little more of a marketing push. Other good possibilities include Cast Away, Dancer In The Dark, or Gladiator.
Hollyfeld’s Picks For:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, High Fidelity, O Brother, Where Art Thou?, Traffic, Wonder Boys.
It’s a fairly easy year to predict for Best Adapted Screenplay nominations (although picking the winner is probably going to be a bitch). It should also be said that the films up for this award are generally more interesting this year than those in the previous category. The Michael Douglas Duo (Wonder Boys and Traffic) are the best bets here, with CT,HD bringing up the rear. Expect High Fidelity to get a "hipness" nomination along the lines of Election or Out Of Sight, but definitely not to win. I give my last slot to O Brother, but its place in the nominations could also go to All The Pretty Horses, Chocolat or Requiem for a Dream.
Well, that’s it for this year. We’ll come back to this again either in my column or Deadpool’s in March when it’s time to predict the winners. Thanks a lot for participating, John – your prize for contributing to the column is in the mail. (And don’t forget, you can get a prize too! Read below!)
Next Time On Look Closer... Hitchcockian Happiness! (Plus, how John and I fared on picks, coupled with an analysis of the Academy’s choices...)
As always, Hollyfeld can be reached at hollyfeld_@hotmail.com
You there! You think you could do this job better than I can? Well, you might be right! Look Closer… is always looking for guest columnists, and you might as well be one of them. Just write a review of reasonable length for a movie that you think is under-rated, over-rated, no one knows, etc., and if it makes the grade we will print it in an edition of this column! Those whose reviews are published will also receive a free piece of (slightly cheesy and really inexpensive) promotional merchandise from a movie, to be sent when their review is published, courtesy of me. Just send any and all reviews to the above address. Thank you for reading and participating in the site!
Lazlo Hollyfeld is the pseudonym of an aspiring writer/actor/director located in Southern California. With one screenplay under his (collaborative) belt and more to come, he is sure to work his way up in the world with the help of his talented and close-knit group of friends, co-workers, and penguins. Yes, you heard me, penguins. A film student since before he can remember, he has devoted much of his life to the study of the silver screen and its related art forms.